HIKMA SUMMIT
OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
 

The fall of the Assad regime

After the cease-fire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, Hts) launched an offensive against government forces in northwest Syria, quickly recapturing Aleppo and Hama. Mohammad al Bashir, leader of the self-proclaimed “government” in Idlib province, the rebel stronghold, justified the operation by accusing the regime of bombing civilians. On December 8, the Syrian capital woke up under the control of the rebels, who announced the overthrow of Bashar al Assad and the release of all those unjustly detained. In Damascus, celebratory gunfire and religious invocations were heard from mosque loudspeakers. Yet, the collapse of the regime opens an era of uncertainty in Syria.

From rebels to leaders: the need for national reconciliation

At the center of the offensive there is the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda until 2016, flanked by other groups supported by Turkey. Hts leader Mohammed al Jolani claims to have broken ties with the main formation and jihadism, although many countries consider it a terrorist group. Syrians had different reactions to the rebels taking control of the country, tracing the typical split in Syrian public opinion. Islamists unreservedly support revolution. Secularists, concerned about the future of the minorities to which they belong, are skeptical and wary of Sunni forces. The “left” saw the “liberation” of Aleppo as progress for the revolution, while expressing fears that Aleppo could become an Islamic emirate on the model of Idlib.

While the three factions watched from a distance, on December 10, the Hts General Command appointed Mohammed al Bashir as interim prime minister until March 1. Six million Syrians in exile - one-quarter of the population - were invited to return to the country, with promises of a democratic Syria respecting all religious and political affiliations - Christians, Kurds, Alawites, Sunnis. Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, known by the nom de guerre Mohammed al Jolani, was appointed interim president on January 29. Having announced the dissolution of the old parliament and the suspension of the 2012 constitution, al Sharaa will represent the country at international summits and form a transitional legislative council. However, he is well aware that elections in Syria could take four years, and a new constitution two or three. Certainly, Syria’s new strongman does not have a track record as a democratic ruler, although in recent times he had been hinting at signs of openness in his handling of Idlib. But it is too early to know whether he has merely blunted his image or truly changed ideology.

The challenges of reconstruction

Rebuilding Syria is not just about politics; it is also a complex humanitarian, economic and technical puzzle, as a result of 14 years of war that has claimed nearly half a million lives.

Before 2011, Syria’s economy was relatively diversified and growing with exports of grain, phosphate and fuel, along with a small manufacturing base, a strategic location on the Mediterranean Sea and one of the highest literacy rates in the region (94%). But war and extreme violence of the regime have destroyed all this. Many villages and towns have been abandoned, uninhabitable for years. Roads are nonexistent, and farmland has been razed to the ground. The GDP has shrunk by 54% between 2010-2021, and 90% of the population lives in poverty. The regime’s use of torture chambers and chemical weapons has turned Syria into a pariah state, since the US and EU imposed sanctions in 2011. Additionally, debts are to be repaid to Moscow and Tehran, which supported Syria in bypassing Western sanctions, and the rapid devaluation of the Syrian currency is already affecting food availability.

Today, over 1.3 million people have already received food aid through the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), which reports the rehabilitation of key facilities in northwest Syria. There is still a need to clear unexploded ordnance and address the needs of 7.2 million internally displaced people (IDPs). The new interim government should focus on food and housing and revive indigenous drivers of growth - agriculture and basic industries - in the short term. To transition to a free-market system, fight corruption and stop financing through the sale of Captagon - an illegal amphetamine - to the Gulf states, Maysaa Sabrine was appointed as the new governor of the Central Bank, becoming the first woman to hold this position. Finally, the need for technicians requires a balance between drawing on the know-how of the old regime’s officials, at the risk of losing the trust of large segments of the population, and revitalizing the education system.

The most important challenge will be mending the social fabric. Behind the technicalities, there are families who have lost loved ones, children without education, deep trauma, and a civil society ill-equipped for active public participation. Rebuilding is not just about repairing roads, houses, schools and hospitals; it is about restoring people’s dignity and hope.

The role of the international community

Syria’s small economy cannot tackle reconstruction alone. Based on an assessment mission, the UN urges the international community to provide the country with significant funds. However, international aid will be conditioned on the credibility of the new government and respect for human rights, even at the cost of leaving aid gaps. A unified approach is needed, that prioritizes the real needs of the Syrian people, through a conference that brings together international donors and the new Syrian government to agree on priorities and ensure transparency. A first step in this direction was taken by the EU on January 27 with the lifting of sanctions.

Second, a country under attack and fraught with conflict cannot be effectively rebuilt. Stability is not only about the absence of war and airstrikes, but it is about creating an environment where people feel safe to rebuild their lives and invest in their future. In this sense, the international community needs to send a message to Israel and Turkey that they pose a threat to a country that, at such a critical stage, needs a new war front as the last thing.

Conclusion

Rebuilding Syria after more than a decade of conflict will not be easy. Syria lacks neither the talent nor the means to revive the country, and Syrians must have a say in their nation’s future, knowing that the days ahead hold more than loss and conflict. But reconstruction can only succeed if it is led by an inclusive and stable government that has international recognition and the trust of the Syrian people. A path that is likely to be hampered by the current fragmented political landscape.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Erkul N. and Şeker A. U., 2024. Restoring trust, building institutions to speed up Syria’s reconstruction. Anadolou Agency. Available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/restoring-trust-building-institutions-to-speed-up-syria-s-reconstruction/3433988 [Accessed 16 February 2025].

Gnetti, F., 2024. L'avanzata dei ribelli in Siria. Internazionale. Available at: https://www.internazionale.it/notizie/francesca-gnetti/2024/12/05/l-avanzata-dei-ribelli-in-siria [Accessed 16 February 2025].

Haski, P., 2024. Pourquoi la guerre civile s’est réveillée en Syrie. France Inter. Available at: https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/podcasts/geopolitique/geopolitique-du-lundi-02-decembre-2024-3637318 [Accessed 16 February 2025].

International Crisis Group, 2025. Promoting a stable, peaceful transition in Syria. Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/promoting-stable-peaceful-transition-syria [Accessed 16 February 2025].

Kozul-Wright, A., 2025. Rebuilding Syria’s economy: Can stability return after war?.  Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/rebuilding-syrias-economy-can-stability-return-after-war  [Accessed 16 February 2025].

Perrin, J.-P., 2024. Les rebelles syriens reconquièrent Alep. Mediapart. Available at: https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/301124/les-rebelles-syriens-reconquierent-alep?userid=31f805f3-2e1c-4e9c-bbd1-a704ba1358f6 [Accessed 16 February 2025].

Qarmout, T., 2024. Rebuilding Syria requires much more than bricks and mortar. Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/12/22/rebuilding-syria-requires-much-more-than-bricks-and-mortar  [Accessed 16 February 2025].

UNHCR, 2024. Syria Situation. Available at: https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/situations/syria-situation [Accessed: 16 February 2025].

United Nations, 2024. Reconstruction and vital repairs underway in Syria, as ‘security conditions’ permit. Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158391 [Accessed 16 February 2025].