HIKMA SUMMIT
OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
 

The last 5th of November Trump was elected president of the United States, but he will take over his new position on the 20th of January 2025. In the meantime the president of the US still remains Joe Biden. He’s now carrying out his last activities as chief of the most influential state in the world and, in all these government business, he still has to attend conferences and meetings with other leaders around the globe.

This is the context in which, this November 16th, there was the last meeting between Biden and XI Jinping.

In this crucial period of transition, this meeting can be seen as an important moment for the US to try to secure what they have already achieved and clarify their position both on topics on which the two parties agree and issues with still no full cooperation and a shared perspective. In particular the main topics were Taiwan, economic relationships, Ukraine crisis, Fentanyl production and AI security. Moreover, the PRC had the chance to give its perspective and some reassurances on its future policy in view of the US administration’s change; indeed Xi, without referring directly to Trump, stated: “The United States has recently concluded its elections, China’s goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged”.

Even if they agreed on their need to cooperate more on the menace of the emerging drugs trend, to keep developing military-to-military communication and to maintain “human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons”, as anticipated the discussion verted also on other, more sensitive, subjects.

TARIFS

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC reported that Xi brought to the attention of Biden the Chinese right of development and the need for each and every country to safeguard their national security and not oversteach it too much, as it would threaten others. On the other side, the White House reported that Biden raised concerns about the unfairness of the PRC’s trade policy and stated that the US will continue with his own policy until it will be necessary, so until the US technologies are no longer a possible threat for the national security of the United States It self or its partners, by being used by China.

The tarifs implemented by Trump in 2018, for the unfair trade practices of Xi, continued to be imposed during these four years of democratic administration and even increased, after China dealt with Russia. Moreover, Biden decided to limit US exportations of advanced technology items towards China, to protect the security of the US (CHIPS and Science Act, 2022). Clearly there has been a bipartisan policy by the US towards this issue and this tendency will likely continue through the next administration.

UKRAINE

Another hot topic of the discussion has been the Ukraine crisis, especially because of the growing anti-west partnership that is worrying the US. In particular, the main two issues reported by the US were the deployment of DPRK troops to Russia and the PRC’s ongoing support to Russia’s defense industrial base. On the other side, China stated that its “position and actions on the Ukraine issue have always been fair and square”, meaning that it is trying to mediate between the two parties to promote peace talks and de-escalation. However, Xi also added a reassurance on the fact that China will not permit a conflict in the Korean Peninsula, because this would mean taking no action when its own interests and security would be under threat.

Donald Trump has repeatedly said he could settle the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day : “I’ll have done that in 24 hours”. It’s unlikely that this will happen but it’s sure that Trump with its “America first” mantra will have a different perspective on the crisis and on the US role in it. His own unpredictability scares everyone, in particular Ukrainians.

TAIWAN

The Taiwan situation is one of the most important issues of the China-US relationship that is mainly shaped by it. President Biden reaffirmed the US’ one China policy and the three Joint Communiques, but also the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA,1979) and the Six Assurances (1982) which regulate the relationship between the United States and Taiwan governments. Also he reiterated the US’ opposition to any unilateral changes to the status quo from both sides, their expectation to a peaceful resolution of the situation and their will for an end to destabilising PRC’s military activity around Taiwan, as the one of the last 14th October. In contrast, Xi stated that the peace and normal stable relationships in the cross-Strait are not possible with the Taiwanese independence movement and the “true nature of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities in seeking Taiwan independence”. Moreover he reported that the Taiwan question with “democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right” are for China four red lines which need to be untouchable by external influence.

After Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan under Biden’s administration the crisis has deepened and military exercises by the PLA in the area have become more common and destabilising. What we can expect from Trump’s administration is unclear: indeed, during Trump1, the president directly called president Tsai and increased weapon sales to Taiwan, but during Joe Rogan’s podcast’s interview, during his campaign, he stated that Taiwan stole American chips’ business and accused it of not paying US protection. This could be an indication for a future change towards more difficult relationships between the two informal allies.

CONCLUSION

The US-China relationship is shaping the current international system and it will continue to do so for the next future at least, even with the necessary change of the United States’ administration. Presidents will change and meetings will have different protagonists, but the aim has to remain finding common grounds on which they can work together and addressing the differences by trying to find compromises peacefully. We still can't tell the future of this relationship and what its impact will be on the international system but we have to believe that they will find a way to “manage competition responsibly and prevent it from veering into conflict or confrontation” as said by Xi.