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Mexico and the war against narcotrafficking after “El Mencho”
di ELISABETTA SEMERARO
18/03/2026
The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as “El Mencho”, one of the most powerful narcotrafficking leaders in the world, has triggered a new wave of violence in Mexico. His death has intensified clashes among drug cartels, challenged State territorial control, and affected Mexico’s geopolitical relations, especially with the US.
El Mencho was killed by the Mexican army with the strategic intervention of American intelligence, an operation that generated political and diplomatic instability, initially plunging the country into an escalation of violent internal conflict, that has partially diminished in recent weeks. El Mencho had long been considered one of the most wanted criminals globally, living in hiding under the protection of one of Mexico’s largest criminal organizations, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). This transnational cartel operates across Mexico, the US, Latin America and Europe, and is known for its extreme violence, often surpassing that of rival groups and its efforts to assert territorial dominance.
Several questions now arise: what will to be the future of Mexico’s internal dynamics with drug cartels and how will its external relations with the US evolve?
How did we get here?
Mexico’s war on narcotrafficking is not a recent phenomenon but traces its roots back to the political and social transformations of the 1970s. The gradual democratic transition and the decline of the long-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party autocratic government weakened centralised political control, creating opportunities for criminal organisations to expand and compete for territorial influence.
However, it was during the presidency of Felipe Calderòn (2006 – 2012) that the Mexican State formally declared war on drug cartels. Tensions started to arise and escalated in violence during these years: what began as conflicts among cartels evolved into a direct confrontation between criminal organisations and the State, while corruption and infiltration increasingly affected governmental institutions from within. The tough stance adopted by Calderon, focused on capturing cartel leaders, was largely maintained during the presidency of Enrique Pena Nieto.
In recent years, Mexico has attempted to adopt new strategies aimed at addressing the root social causes of drug trafficking and violence, while also focusing on prevention. At the same time, however, a national security force with a strong militant character was introduced, strengthening also intelligence and investigative capacities. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights raised concerns regarding this potential militarisation of the country, leading to human rights violations.
Nonetheless, these securitisation efforts have not produced the expected results, as shown by the persistently high number of drug-related killings and the 14.000 new cases of desaparecidos reported between 2024 and 2025.
What is the current situation in Mexico?
The immediate aftermath of El Mencho’s killing saw spikes in violence, including attacks on infrastructure, security forces and State institutions. However, this peak was relatively short-lived, and tensions have since partially subsided. According to experts, two main dynamics now characterise Mexico’s internal context. The death of such a pivotal figure has opened a struggle for succession within the CJNG; in fact, rather than eliminating the cartel, the killing brought the risk of fragmenting it into competing factions and potentially increasing localised violence. Removing the cartel’s leader does not lead to the dismantlement of the whole criminal organisation but contributes to reshaping its structure, often leading to internal instability.
On the other hand, some analysts suggest that cartels are now acting more cautiously, partly due to fears of increased pressure or even direct intervention from the US, in light of Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and recent geopolitical developments.
Today, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum faces pressure on two fronts: externally from the US and internally trying to maintain territorial control against drug cartels. Shortly before the Mexican operation, they entry of US marine forces into the country was authorised “for training activities”, enhancing bilateral cooperation but at the same time raising concerns regarding Mexican sovereignty and independence from US’s political pressure.
Geopolitical implications and future pathways
The crisis has significant effects on US domestic politics. Issues such as fentanyl trafficking, border security and bilateral economic cooperation are frontline in the relationship between Mexico and the US, and cartel violence directly affects them.
Fentanyl trafficking represents a major rising challenge: unlike other substances such as cocaine, fentanyl is a synthetic drug produced in laboratories and thus not relying on plantations. This makes its production harder to detect and regulate, while its effects are considered threateningly lethal. The opioid crisis in the US, linked in large part to fentanyl, has caused nearly 100.000 deaths in recent years, causing US institutions’ concern. The CJNG under El Mencho’s leadership was one of the primary actors involved in producing and trafficking this substance.
Drug control has become a key issue in the political agenda associated with Donald Trump, particularly in relation to synthetic drugs, with increased pressure on the Mexican government to intensify its efforts against drug cartels, even threatening potential repercussions.
At the same time, Mexico’s current administration has adopted a tougher stance on organised crime, moving away from the previous “Abrazos, no balazos” approach. President Sheinbaum has also used the implicit threat of US intervention to justify a more aggressive security strategy. Trump’s second administration started almost simultaneously to Sheinbaum’s leadership in Mexico, leading to a strategic reassessment of US-Mexico relations, especially considering Mexico’s economic dependence on the US, as well as challenges related to migration, border control and war on drugs.
The Trump administration had previously placed a 15-million-dollar bounty on El Mencho and recognised the CJNG as an international terrorist organisation. Shortly before his killing, a joint anti-cartel task force between Mexican and US authorities was announced, aimed at strengthening intelligence efforts and operational coordination.
The future of the bilateral relationship between the US and Mexico remains uncertain. While unilateral military action from Trump’s side appears unlikely, the evolution of cooperation will depend on the effectiveness of ongoing joint security efforts and on US domestic political developments.
Conclusion
The killing of El Mencho represents both a turning point and a source of uncertainty in Mexico’s struggle against narcotrafficking. While the military operation proved the State’s capacity to target high-profile cartel leaders, it also confirmed the structural and endemic nature of cartels, characterised by adaptability and reconfiguration. The risk of fragmentation within the CJNG combined with renewed territorial disputed, suggests that violence might not see a decrease but evolve into more localised and unpredictable forms.
At the same time, recent developments highlight the interdependence of Mexico and US efforts in combating transnational organised crime. The Fentanyl threat, border security challenges and intelligence cooperation continue to reshape bilateral relations, placing Mexico in between resisting external pressure and asserting domestic sovereignty.
Ultimately, Mexico’s political landscape in the aftermath of El Mencho’s death highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated strategy to strengthen institutional capacity and address the socio-economic conditions that allow criminal organisations to thrive, while also underlying the transnational dimension of drug trafficking, that calls for renewed cooperative efforts across the Americas.
References
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/perspectives-on-the-us-mexico-relationship-what-next/
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