HIKMA SUMMIT
OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Therefore, with so much going on within its borders, it is understandable why Labour’s election campaign avoided prioritizing EU relations. Additionally, despite its landslide win, Labour knows that its popularity is limited and cannot afford to be at odds with the electorate that back in 2016 voted to leave the EU. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is aware of this and has developed a strategy based on cautious pragmatism and a focus on domestic rather than foreign policies.

Whilst pledging to reset relations and establish closer ties with the EU, Starmer has been adamant that there will be no return to the single market, a customs union or freedom of movement, to the point that he rejected the EU’s proposal for a youth mobility scheme with the UK. In simpler words: no going back. The UK will keep an open mind on trade, but will do so bilaterally; however, it must avoid a one-sided approach because the EU feels like it has been “cherry-picking” deals. The pro-European Labour government has aspirations of deepening ties with the EU, identifying trade and security as two critical areas it must address. At the heart of Labour’s vision is a commitment to ensuring that the UK is seen as a reliable partner, a dependable ally, and a good neighbour.

Rebuilding Trade Ties with the European Union

Trade remains a contentious area of the UK-EU relationship. The EU considers trade with the UK to be largely resolved through the Windsor Framework and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). However, British exporters who have been severely affected by Brexit find the TCA unsatisfactory with exports to the EU falling by 6.4% and imports by 31% by the end of 2022 since it was signed in 2020. To address these issues, Labour has proposed some amendments to the agreement, such as recognition of professional qualifications, visa exemptions for touring performers, and a veterinary agreement, which could drastically reduce or even nullify costly sanitary border checks on food products, benefitting both exporters and consumers. However, this is easier said than done. It would require the UK to adopt constantly evolving EU regulations and to accept the interference of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in resolving disputes related to these regulations. In a context where only a few years ago half of the population felt that the country’s sovereignty was being stepped on by the EU, this prospect carries political sensitivities and risks that the new government may not be able to afford.

Closer alignment with the EU could yield economic benefits but might complicate other relationships as well, especially with the United States. Whilst Trump’s protectionist trade policies- such as threatening tariffs up to 20% on import- might spring uncertainty to the UK’s trade strategy, they could also push the country towards the EU as a more reliable trade ally. Despite these challenges, Labour is optimistic about fostering better economic relations with the EU.

Security: Trump and Ukraine

Focusing on security represents a strategic game plan for the Labour government offering an easier starting point than trade. The proposed pact would provide a framework for collaboration for security on a wide range of issues, including foreign policy, defence, energy security, climate action and migration. Labour aims to modify the TCA to strengthen formal structures for security cooperation and has already hosted initiatives like the European Political Community summit in Blenheim. Furthermore, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey have been speaking bilaterally with European leaders.

Geopolitical changes, including the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a US retreat from its role as European security guarantor following Trump’s victory, have changed the UK’s stance on the EU. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the potential for closer UK-EU cooperation on defence. In 2022, the UK joined the EU’s PESCO Military Mobility project, marking a significant step towards enhanced cooperation. Labour envisions further integration in EU defence initiatives: Foreign secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey want to work towards a ‘UK–EU defence pact’ that allows the UK’s participation in EU military and civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions.

With Trump’s victory, the UK might not be able to rely on its “special relationship” with the United States. Trump’s isolationist policies and his race against China could force the UK to reconsider its strategic priorities and push it closer to the EU. A recent ECFR opinion poll, in the UK and key EU countries shows a strong desire for closer UK-EU cooperation, especially on security and economic issues. It reveals the British public is increasingly favouring Europe over Trump's policies on Ukraine and China. If the future US president abandons support for Ukraine, the UK, with the EU, might need to step in, as a security guarantor. Moreover, any closer defence relationship between the UK and the EU would likely need to include a nuclear component.

Yet, despite the strategic shifts, relations between the UK and the EU remain complicated. The European Commission is currently taking the British government to court over alleged violations of EU citizens' rights in the UK, adding a layer of tension to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s attempts to reset post-Brexit relations. At the same time, the EU faces its own internal challenges, including economic struggles and the rise of far-right governments. Given these issues, improving relations between the two might be more challenging than expected.

A Pragmatic Path for UK-EU Relations?

By focusing on pragmatic adjustments to trade agreements and shared security goals, the new British Government seeks to reset its relationship with its former friend, the European Union, by cautiously navigating the hurdles while avoiding upsetting the Brexit voters. Any adjustments though are expected to be minor and primarily technical. Labour sees security as “low-hanging fruit” and by focusing on shared security goals, it hopes to build trust and lay the groundwork for deeper cooperation in other areas. However, integration in the EU’s security framework is not as easy as Labour might believe. Non-EU countries face barriers to joining EU defence programs, as eligibility often hinges on their integration with the EU Single Market. Additionally, uncertainty in US-EU relations could either drive the EU closer to like-minded partners like the UK or intensify efforts toward strategic autonomy.