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Libya Report
DI FEDERICO GUGLIANDOLO
15/04/2026
Fifteen years after the fall of Gaddafi, Libya has become the mirror of a "constituted disorder" where national sovereignty has yielded to institutionalized anarchy and multi-billion dollar smuggling operations. Between Ukrainian drones patrolling the skies over Tripoli and the consolidation of the Russian Africa Corps, the country has transformed into a proxy battlefield, suspended between the iron-fisted dynastic rule of the Haftars and the bureaucratic paralysis of the UN. This essay analyzes the failure of international roadmaps and the rise of new mediators, revealing how the fate of the Mediterranean is now held hostage by local militias and dark energy schemes. It is a necessary investigation to understand whether stabilization remains a possible goal or if Libya is now condemned to be the epicenter of an endless global crisis.
At 8:30 in the morning of October 20, 2011, the roar of NATO air squadrons was heard in the skies over Tripoli. The cry of "Free Libya," which just a few months earlier had sparked the Revolution, was now drowned out by the crash of bombs that would sweep away Muammar Gaddafi's regime along with—according to a Human Rights Watch report—the lives of at least one hundred people. Fifteen years later, the country is still convulsed by civil war, which has transformed its territory into a battlefield crisscrossed by the political and economic interests of dozens of different actors.
There is one image that describes the current state of Libya better than any other: a Ukrainian drone, taking off from Tripoli on March 5, 2026, rising into flight to strike and sink a Russian tanker off the coast of Malta. This episode, almost surreal in its geographical and strategic complexity, is not merely a reflection of the global projection of the war in Ukraine. It is, first and foremost, the physical symbol of the abdication of the Libyan state; blatant proof of a territory reduced to a chessboard for international score-settling, where the concept of national sovereignty is now a distant, faded memory.
In the current state of affairs, Libya appears to the world as a paralyzed organism, a country frozen in a chronic transition that has lasted for over a decade. The military clash between the government in Tripoli to the west and the government in Benghazi to the east remains firmly crystallized. Neither side possesses the military strength or political legitimacy to overwhelm the other. Consequently, both regimes have abandoned major field offensives, preferring to entrench and consolidate themselves within their respective territories. The primary objective no longer appears to be the reunification of the country, but rather the consolidation of their hold on territory, the containment of turbulent local centrifugal forces, and the signing of lucrative agreements with foreign powers for the management of "black gold" and the supply of military hardware.
In this vacuum of power and legality, which has become the weary normalcy for millions of citizens, local elites prosper undisturbed by exploiting the proceeds of oil fields. A recent and detailed report by the organization The Sentry has uncovered a staggering system of corruption and malpractice: fuel smuggling in the North African country now yields at least 6.7 billion dollars a year. This colossal figure finances militias, buys loyalty, and cements the status quo.
Contributing to this institutionalized anarchy was the disappearance of Saif al-Islam. For years, the figure of the late Colonel Gaddafi's favourite son represented a constant threat to the precarious balance between the forces on the ground. In the eyes of a segment of the population tired of the chaos, Saif al-Islam embodied the natural heir to the old institutional and security stability of the Jamahiriya era.
As Libyan institutions dissolved, external actors took advantage of the empty spaces. The most emblematic case is undoubtedly that of Russia. Following the final collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and the subsequent traumatic loss of the historic naval base at Tartus, Moscow had to urgently recalibrate its power projection in the Mediterranean. Libya proved to be the perfect substitute. The Kremlin has progressively increased its military presence in the country, acting not as a pacifying element, but as the guarantor of "constituted disorder."
Today, Moscow’s Africa Corps is an integral part of the strategic and social landscape of Cyrenaica. With five active military bases in territory controlled by General Khalifa Haftar, Russia has secured a formidable operational platform that allows it to project influence and deterrence across the entire Central-Eastern Mediterranean theatre. Faced with this aggressive dynamism, European diplomacy—and Italian diplomacy in particular—appears exceedingly weak and devoid of vision. In this fragmented theatre, even international mediation efforts struggle to impact reality. The latest United Nations Secretary-General report on the UNSMIL mission (known as S/2025/792) attempted to take stock of the situation, outlining the desolate picture of a nation in limbo.
The UN document seeks to place the so-called "Political Road Map" at the centre of the agenda—a plan aimed at overcoming the executive dualism between Tripoli and Tobruk through bureaucratic unification and the renewal of the High National Elections Commission (HNEC). This move is intended to be the necessary precondition to finally bring Libyan citizens to the polls for parliamentary and presidential elections. However, reality on the ground tells a different story: to date, these elections remain without a certain date and seem destined to remain a mirage.
On the security front, the UN Secretary-General signalled a worrying and dangerous stalemate. On one side is the Joint Military Commission (known as 5+5), which struggles amidst a thousand difficulties to maintain the armed truce between east and west. On the other side, however, there are extremely alarming internal dynamics. In the western region, there is a continuous and chaotic fragmentation of armed militias, which periodically clash for control of Tripoli's neighbourhoods and illicit trafficking. In the East, a diametrically opposite process is unfolding: a fierce dynastic consolidation of power. The recent appointment of Khaled Haftar as head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Security Forces is yet another example of how the General’s family is locking down and stiffening the command structure in Benghazi in view of a future hereditary succession.
Admittedly, there are small signs of economic de-escalation. The hard-won agreement on the management of the Central Bank and the formal launch of a unified development program represent small steps forward to avoid a total financial collapse. But these are mere palliatives. The UN report pierces the veil of hypocrisy by denouncing a human rights situation described simply as "alarming." There is a systematic and violent shrinking of civic space, with arbitrary arrests of activists and journalists, accompanied by unspeakable and persistent abuses against the vulnerable population of migrants and refugees, trapped in a subhuman limbo.
The photograph that emerges from this complex web of events and international reports is pitiless. Libya today is a nation where the very architecture of sovereignty remains hostage to local armed groups and international proxy actors. Without a real and verifiable withdrawal of foreign forces (be they Russian mercenaries, Turkish troops, or military advisors) and without a true integration of defence apparatuses under a single national command, any stabilization process promoted by the United Nations risks remaining a mere formal exercise—a piece of paper devoid of any effective territorial authority. Meanwhile, the drones continue to fly and the oil continues to flow, fuelling a silent war that no one seems intent on stopping.
With pressing crises such as Hormuz and the possibility of Gulf Houthi militias striking Western convoys again, the protection of maritime routes—particularly those passing through the Mediterranean—is returning to the attention of the international community. The question is: will the actors involved be able to curb the Libyan crisis by pursuing the path of stabilization, or will economic interests, pursued at the expense of ordinary people, be the ones to prevail?
UN S/2025/792
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/civil-war-libya
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/libia-giochi-di-influenze-tra-est-e-ovest-228903
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