HIKMA SUMMIT
OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Background

Under its 2008 constitution, Myanmar, with its capital Naypyidaw, has a quasi-parliamentary system with an elected president serving a five-year term and the possibility of being re-elected for one additional term. The last elected president was Win Myint, even though, de facto, it was the State Counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi, leading the government. In 2021, however, the military enacted a coup d’etat.

 

The military junta has held extreme control over the state since its first coup d’etat in 1962. Indeed, although the first general election was held in 1990, the junta placed San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), under house arrest, invalidating the results. Following this, the military chiefs started to implement a so-called “disciplined democracy”, a process that led to the 2008 constitution, which preserved significant military control over the state. After these changes, the people of Myanmar hoped for a transition toward a more democratic government with the first true competitive national elections (2015) resulting in the NLD victory, thanks to San Suu Kyi’s campaign as a democratic icon.

The tensions in Myanmar (formerly Burma) are also a direct consequence of the country’s diverse ethnic composition and historical divisions caused by British colonisation. In particular, the Rohingya population has long been persecuted by the Bamar majority. Notably, given how the citizen law has been written, the government does not consider them as actual citizens, because they are not seen as an indigenous state’s ethnic group, since they did not settle in Burma before the British colonisation.

This tension escalated after the two Rohingya attacks, one in October 2016 and one in August 2017, to which the military responded with violent operations in their villages. These operations caused at least 6,700 deaths and forced 700,000 people to flee to Bangladesh. As a result, Myanmar is currently facing a lawsuit for genocide before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC). The legacy of Suu Kyi will be forever stained for not having stopped the atrocities committed by the army.

In 2020, the NLD won the general election again with Win Myint as president, and San Suu Kyi again as State Counsellor. Nonetheless, the military, led by Min Aung Hlaing, contested the results as fraudulent and, in February 2021, carried out a coup. Thousands of protesters spread out in Naypyidaw, and the army responded by deploying lethal forces, killing more than 600 people. In response, a new opposition to the coup was formed: the National Unity Government (NUG), aiming to build a federal democratic union. The new coalition immediately created an armed wing to fight against the state military, the People’s Defence Force (PDF), in coordination with 25 other active ethnic armies. By 2024, they counted 85,000 soldiers. Moreover, in 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of three different ethnic armed groups, launched a coordinated offensive, Operation 1027, against the junta in the Shan state.

Present situation

There was an initial expectation that the Three Brotherhood Alliance could drastically change the situation by defeating the army in a few steps, seeing their long history of collaboration, resources, and surprise effect. Indeed, after several victories in the Shan region, they lowered the military morale and strength, giving the PDF’s forces the possibility to advance in other contested areas of the state. As the Brotherhood Alliance approached Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, there was a common perception that the military might collapse soon. According to the BBC survey in November 2024, it was clear that the junta was not doing well. Indeed, after four years of chaos, it controlled only 21% of the entire territory, while ethnic armed groups held 42%. However, the military has not yet capitulated. To explain why, it is important to consider the support that other states provide to the military. Among them, there is, of course, the country that has the most influence over Myanmar, China.

China’s involvement

At first, China tried not to be drawn into the conflict and the fragile situation of Myanmar by adopting its non-interference strategy. However, being close to the military regime and its chief, it pivoted its attention and support. Indeed, when the Three Brotherhood Alliance was created, China initially supported the three ethnic armed organisations, seeing also that two of them are aligned with Chinese interests. Then, it was surprised by the strength and victories of the alliance and feared the end of the Min Aung Hlaing’s regime.  To counterbalance and better preserve its objectives, China deepened its help towards the exhausted military. Therefore, the Chinese government started to implement its multi-stakeholder strategy to balance its involvement with military and diplomatic actions. It tried to establish a dialogue with the different actors involved by pressuring the armed groups to stop all hostilities, cooperating with the military for security, and supporting its proposal for a new general election. China is so deeply involved in the situation because it has numerous interests in Myanmar. First, the two states share a long border, so it’s among China’s security issues to have a stable neighbour. Secondly, Myanmar is the access ticket to the Indian Ocean for China, and for this reason, the military must keep control over the state to ensure this passage to the Chinese commercial actors. Finally, China has other crucial economic interests in the region, like the presence of critical minerals, oil and gas, and BRI infrastructure projects.

Conclusion

The situation in Myanmar, even though it remains unseen by many, is disastrous, and it does not seem close to ending. The actors in play are various, and they all have different goals; however, the ones who suffer the most severe consequences are the civilians. In an already tragic situation, the earthquake of March 2025 created an even deeper crisis. A sustainable pathway out of Myanmar’s crisis will require international coherence, genuine political dialogue, and above all, the prioritisation of civilian protection. Until then, the country will remain trapped in an invisible but devastating humanitarian catastrophe.

Sources:

BBC. (2025, October 23). Myanmar's army is taking back territory with relentless air strikes – and China’s help (J. Head). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c051m0jn392o

Council on Foreign Relations. (2025, October 1). Civil war in Myanmar (Global Conflict Tracker). https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/rohingya-crisis-myanmar

Mishra, V. (2025, October 29). Myanmar at a crossroads: A choice between impunity and justice. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166221

Rejwan, K. T., & Romaniuk, S. N. (2025, April 22). China’s geopolitical balancing act in post-coup Myanmar. Geopolitical Monitor. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/chinas-geopolitical-balancing-act-in-post-coup-myanmar/

Henschke, R., Ko Ko Aung, Aung, J., & Data Journalism Team. (2024, December 20). Soldier-spies in Myanmar help pro-democracy rebels make crucial gains. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390ndrny17o

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